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Only six will survive the crisis
08.12.2008 13:50:42  Viewings: 30522
Global associations and bankruptcy of many companies are inevitable, Sergio Marcionne CEO Fiat Group says. Moreover, Marcionne has noted that according to his forecasts, only six companies among the most outstanding motorcar manufacturers are capable to survive decisive two years, while the majority of less significant offices is expecting absorption.

"When all this will end approximately in 24 months that, speaking about mass manufacturers, one American company, one German and one with capitals in France and Japan will keep own positions. Probably, one more company from the USA, one from Japan, one from China and the potential player on the European arena will be also added to this list", - Marcionne has declared.

The boss of the Italian concern considers that companies need to build over 5,5 million vehicles a year to keep solvency in some years. For today, only five motorcar giants like Toyota, General Motors, Volkswagen, Ford and Renault-Nissan possess such production potentialities.

Many European analysts including Jürgen Pieper from German Metzler Bank share pessimistic Marcionne's point of view. Last believes that the reason of such variety of brands in Europe is concealed that many of them are in possession of "clans" till now. If private capitals of these families will be exhausted because of long falling car sales, which brand they represent, sale of these brands will be the most probable outcome.

The family Quandt owns about 46 % of shares BMW, whereas 30 % of PSA Peugeot-Citroen belongs to members of the family Peugeot. Exactly these two companies, in opinion of Pieper, are subjects to risks if to consider only European motorcar manufacturers. Analyst names Volkswagen Group, Renault-Nissan and Daimler as the strongest.

Key questions are economy due to growth of manufacture, exchange of car components and technologies, and also costs for development of families. "During the last some years Audi is bypassing Mercedes-Benz and BMW according to parameters of growth as the company only wins that is a part of Volkswagen", - Jürgen Pieper considers.

Not every expert agrees with such forecasts. They cite General Motors as an example - most likely, subsidiary brands as Saab and Saturn will be sold or liquidated.

"I think, one should not wait many merges during recession", - Garel Rhys, a professor from British Cardiff Business School has declared, engaged in researches of tendencies in car industry. "There are no bases that the companies are eager to share their positions with somebody". The analyst explains that the majority of motorcar manufacturers have too many own problems even to consider an opportunity of association with opponents.

Based on: Leftlanenews